Forex Market Commentary for February 8, 2008 by Cornelius Luca GFT Daily Market Commentary The dollar rose broadly on Thursday, in part because the BoE made the expected rate cut and ECB President Trichet finally accepted that the Eurozone growth risks are to the downside. The US currency should pad its gains today. Euro/dollar Euro/dollar fell sharply on Tuesday and the magnitude of the decline surpassed expectations. The downside remains guardedly favored. Below 1.4420, support is now seen at 1.4367 from a pivot low. The next support looms at 1.4303. Distant support is pegged at 1.4125 Initial resistance is at 1.4530. Above 1.4610, resistance now comes at 1.4690. Distant resistance follows at 1.4848. Oscillators are falling. NEAR-TERM: Mixed with bearish bias MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed LONG-TERM: Bullish Dollar/yen Dollar/yen aggressively reversed early losses and closed at the highest level since January 16. The pair should attempt to pad its gains. Good resistance now comes at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot that targets 107.45 and 108.45. Strong support comes at 106.85. Below 106.35, distant resistance follows at 105.50 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 115.00 and 116.00. Oscillators are rising. NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed LONG-TERM: Bearish Sterling/dollar Sterling/dollar tumbled again amid lower interest rates. The downside pressure should continue, as the medium-term outlook remains negative. Below 1.9395, support is now seen at 1.9330. Distant support moved down to 1.9230. Initial resistance comes at 1.9500. This is followed by 1.9615. Distant resistance comes at 1.9720. Oscillators are declining. NEAR-TERM: Bearish MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish LONG-TERM: Mixed Dollar/Swiss franc Dollar/Swiss broke out from an inside range on its way to a 2 ½-week high. It stopped short of forming a double bottom. Once again, following some early weakness, the pair should attempt another rally. Initial resistance remains at 1.1105. This is followed by 1.1125. Further resistance comes at 1.1170. Immediate support is now seen at 1.1000. The next level is 1.0940. Below 1.0865, support is pegged at 1.0729 from a pivot low. Oscillators are rising. NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish LONG-TERM: Bearish

Forex Market Commentary for January 7, 2008 by Cornelius Luca GFT Daily Market Commentary The very weak non-farm payrolls report failed to keep the dollar down for long. The US currency recovered its losses versus the European currencies, but remained under pressure against the yen, which is following the yuan higher. Long liquidation of yen crosses contributed to the dollar/yen weakness. The dollar should attempt to pad its recovery versus the European currencies today. Euro/dollar Euro/dollar on Friday fell from a five-week high to close unchanged. Today should see another attempt of a pull back. Initial resistance is still seen at 1.4780. The next level is 1.4825. Distant resistance follows at 1.4885. Immediate support remains at 1.4690. This is followed by 1.4640, 1.4570 and 1.4520. A break below 1.4470 would infer a test of the distant support at 1.4390. Oscillators are rising. NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside risk MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed LONG-TERM: Bullish Dollar/yen Dollar/yen remains under pressure after sinking to its lowest levels seen since November 27. The selling pressure should continue. Initial support comes at 108.25. This is followed by 107.95 from a 50-point pivot that targets 107.45 and 108.45. Then, there is a pivot low at 107.22. Immediate resistance is at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.65 and 108.65. Above 110.05 there is further resistance at 110.35 from another 50-point pivot that targets 109.85 and 110.85. Oscillators are falling. NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish LONG-TERM: Bearish Sterling/dollar Sterling/dollar remains under selling pressure as well after sinking to a new 4 ½-month low on Friday. Cable should now consolidate at lower levels. Immediate support comes at 1.9653 from a pivot low. Further support is at 1.9555... Initial resistance is still in place at 1.9800. This is followed by 1.9900 and 1.9945. Distant resistance follows at 2.0000. Oscillators are sliding. NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish LONG-TERM: Mixed Dollar/Swiss franc Dollar/Swiss fell further on Friday, reaching its lowest level since November 27. The overall pressure should continue, but in the short term there is upside risk because the pair is oversold. Initial resistance remains at 1.1160. The next level is 1.1250. Distant resistance comes at 1.1330. Immediate support is seen at 1.1020. Below 1.0890 from a pivot low, a distant support is now pegged at 1.0760. Oscillators are declining. NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside risk MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish LONG-TERM: Bearish

Forex Market Commentary for January 4, 2008 by Cornelius Luca GFT Daily Market Commentary The dollar slumped on the first trading day of 2008 on news that the manufacturing ISM contracted to 47.7 in December from 50.8 in November. The exception to the rule was the pound, which remained under selling pressure on concerns over a rate cut. The dollar should attempt to recover while the market is looking for direction, but take your cues from the ADP data, the oil prices and the carry trades. Euro/dollar Euro/dollar rallied on Wednesday to fully recover its Monday’s losses and matched that day’s high. Today should see some attempt of a pull back, but the risk is on the upside because of cross trading. Immediate support is now seen at 1.4640. This is followed by 1.4570 and 1.4520. A break below 1.4470 would infer a test of the distant support at 1.4390. Initial resistance is seen at 1.4750. The next level is 1.4800. Distant resistance follows at 1.4885. Oscillators are mixed. NEAR-TERM: Mixed MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed LONG-TERM: Bullish Dollar/yen With the carry trades on the ropes, dollar/yen fell further on Wednesday to reach its lowest levels seen since November 28. It should trade sideways today. Initial support remains at 111.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 112.10 and 111.10. . Immediate resistance is at 112.55. Strong resistance follows at 112.90 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 113.40 and 112.40 in place at 113.85. Oscillators are falling. NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed LONG-TERM: Bearish Sterling/dollar Sterling/dollar fell further on Wednesday, a day when the other European currencies rallied, following a soft manufacturing PMI report. Cable should now consolidate. Initial resistance is at 1.9900 and then at 1.9945. Above 2.0000, the next level to deal with is at 2.0055. Distant resistance follows at 2.0260. Immediate support comes at 1.9745. Further support is pegged at 1.9698 from a pivot low. Oscillators are mixed. NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish LONG-TERM: Bullish Dollar/Swiss franc As I suspected, dollar/Swiss’ recovery on Monday was too misguided but Wednesday’s slide surpassed expectations. The pair sank to its lowest level since November 29 and this pressure may continue, albeit at a reduced pace. A high-risk medium-term trade may be buying GBP/CHF because the cross is grossly oversold. Below 1.1150, support is seen at 1.1060. A distant support is pegged at 1.0890 from a pivot low. Initial resistance comes at 1.1250. Above 1.1330, distant resistance comes at 1.1415 and 1.1525. Oscillators are declining. NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly lower MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish LONG-TERM: Bearish

GFT Daily Market Commentary GFT Daily Market Commentary The dollar slumped on the first trading day of 2008 on news that the manufacturing ISM contracted to 47.7 in December from 50.8 in November. The exception to the rule was the pound, which remained under selling pressure on concerns over a rate cut. The dollar should attempt to recover while the market is looking for direction, but take your cues from the ADP data, the oil prices and the carry trades. Euro/dollar Euro/dollar rallied on Wednesday to fully recover its Monday’s losses and matched that day’s high. Today should see some attempt of a pull back, but the risk is on the upside because of cross trading. Immediate support is now seen at 1.4640. This is followed by 1.4570 and 1.4520. A break below 1.4470 would infer a test of the distant support at 1.4390. Initial resistance is seen at 1.4750. The next level is 1.4800. Distant resistance follows at 1.4885. Oscillators are mixed. NEAR-TERM: Mixed MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed LONG-TERM: Bullish Dollar/yen With the carry trades on the ropes, dollar/yen fell further on Wednesday to reach its lowest levels seen since November 28. It should trade sideways today. Initial support remains at 111.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 112.10 and 111.10. . Immediate resistance is at 112.55. Strong resistance follows at 112.90 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 113.40 and 112.40 in place at 113.85. Oscillators are falling. NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed LONG-TERM: Bearish Sterling/dollar Sterling/dollar fell further on Wednesday, a day when the other European currencies rallied, following a soft manufacturing PMI report. Cable should now consolidate. Initial resistance is at 1.9900 and then at 1.9945. Above 2.0000, the next level to deal with is at 2.0055. Distant resistance follows at 2.0260. Immediate support comes at 1.9745. Further support is pegged at 1.9698 from a pivot low. Oscillators are mixed. NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish LONG-TERM: Bullish Dollar/Swiss franc As I suspected, dollar/Swiss’ recovery on Monday was too misguided but Wednesday’s slide surpassed expectations. The pair sank to its lowest level since November 29 and this pressure may continue, albeit at a reduced pace. A high-risk medium-term trade may be buying GBP/CHF because the cross is grossly oversold. Below 1.1150, support is seen at 1.1060. A distant support is pegged at 1.0890 from a pivot low. Initial resistance comes at 1.1250. Above 1.1330, distant resistance comes at 1.1415 and 1.1525. Oscillators are declining. NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly lower MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish LONG-TERM: Bearish

Forex Market Commentary for December 24, 2007 by Cornelius Luca GFT Daily Market Commentary The dollar is flat versus the European currencies and the yen on Christmas Eve and struggling higher against the antipodean currencies. Expect only spotty trading through Thursday. Euro/dollar Euro/dollar recovered on Friday after falling to a near two-month low a day earlier. Trading should be quiet. Initial resistance is seen at 1.4455. Above it the next levels are 1.4490 and 1.4525. Immediate support is at 1.4330. A break below 1.4290 would suggest a test of 1.4260. Euro/dollar then has good support at 1.4165. Oscillators are mixed. NEAR-TERM: Mixed MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed LONG-TERM: Bullish Dollar/yen Dollar/yen broke out of an inside range on Friday on its way to a 1 ½-month high. Expect choppy trading today. Immediate resistance is 114.20. The next level is 115.00. Initial support now comes at 113.60. Strong support follows from a 50-point pivot at 112.90, which targets 113.40 and 112.40. Oscillators are rising. NEAR-TERM: Mixed MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish LONG-TERM: Bearish Sterling/dollar Sterling/dollar remains under pressure after collapsing to a four-month low on Thursday. The downside remains favored in the medium-term and there is a medium-term bearish flag that targets 1.9650. Immediate support is still seen at 1.9760. This is followed by 1.9680 and 1.9650. Initial resistance is at 1.9865. The next one is at 1.9960. Distant resistance now follows at 2.0055. Oscillators are declining. NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish LONG-TERM: Bullish Dollar/Swiss franc Dollar/Swiss fell from a near two-month high on Friday but then recovered most of its losses. Its uptrend still looks good but a close above the 1.1610 area is needed to signal further strength. Initial resistance remains at 1.1610. Above it, resistance comes at 1.1710 and 1.1750. Immediate support is now seen at 1.1530. This is followed by 1.1480. The next level is 1.1450. Oscillators are rising. NEAR-TERM: Mixed MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish LONG-TERM: Bearish